The Alonso Effect

In the recent weeks, after the F1 world healed its split rift with the FIA, attention was set to be turned to Silly Season, but was stylishly interrupted by Massa’s incident; Schumacher’s missed Return, Badoer’s awful form, and now, Renault’s almost disastrous scandal. But if you bend your ear and listen to the grape vine, you’d notice the following; the Driver’s market in F1 for 2010 is something rather big. It’s actually a market where a vast sum of money will be interchanged, contracts will be signed, and promising careers either forged or sent forward towards redundancy.

After the relative calm, and minimal team swaps that we witnessed last year, this year’s silly season truly earns its name. As you surf the F1 blogosphere and other supposedly well sourced News sites, you manage to see some of the pundit’s throwing driver names and teams together in a melting pot and coming out with what are essentially “what if” sensational grids. Every other Silly Season, and specifically those odd years where the season earns its name, there is usually a key.

Last year the key was supposedly Alonso, any journalist worth his salt (or rather not) was saying that he was heading to Ferrari, until almost all of them were slammed shut and left in Awe when Ferrari extended both its drivers’ contracts for two years (end 2010). However since their wild ass rumors, or worst kept secrets expired (whatever you want to call them), what I think are the same journalists and pundits are re-igniting the same rumors all over again this year and stating that Alonso is the Key.

I personally keep up with F1 news on a daily basis, (actually hourly), and I’m yet to read a post or article that does not say Alonso is definitely going to Ferrari next year. And since all those authors are claiming to know what Alonso and Ferrari claim they don’t, I decided to play the skeptic.

Let just call this a ‘what if ‘game of chance. Alonso to Ferrari is in my opinion (I might be proven wrong very soon), the biggest Silly Season bluff ever to have been rumored in my near 16 years of watching the sport. There are many schemes that Ferrari can appky and put Fernando in Raikkonen’s car, a WRC FIAT team is one of them, and a contract retainer settlement is the other but would cost Ferrari dearly.

But I have the distinct feeling that Alonso will not be wearing red next year. And as things are shaping up with the ‘Renault told Nelsinho to Crash at Singapore GATE’, Alonso might not race for a while or ever if proven guilty of having something to do with it…

So that leaves us with the same unchanged Ferrari line-up, considering Massa’s brain heals in time. The big question in my view is the two heavy calibers that will want to leave a start-up team built on the ashes of Sauber BMW. I think both Heidfeld and Kubica would be well suited if Williams turn to Renault Power or any other top team for that matter, in case the French company is still allowed to supply engines next year. Rosberg seems to be a sure thing at McLaren, but that can change, Nakajima will most definitely be dropped if Toyota is no longer supplying Williams with power.

I think McLaren has to and will keep its current line-up. Their topsy-turvy season has been hard to grasp for both drivers, and Heikki is playing second fiddle to Hamilton very well, I think the role suits him, and Rosberg will have a hard time consenting; Regardless of McLaren crying equality all the time.

The Red Bull squads are set in stone it seems, the senior team has cemented its line-up and the juniors seem to have a nice prep-school run going.

Brawn GP on the one hand seem content with their current line-up, and if Button and Barrichello top the title standings I would expect Ross Brawn’s musings to become true, and carry over with much needed stability and consistency, especially if everyone else is swapping around.

On the other hand, the team where I see the most natural change would be Force India, whether Fisichella moves to Ferrari tomorrow to replace Badoer in Massa’s seat, or at the end of the season to replace Badoer as a test driver, either way India’s Pride will have Sutil and Liuzzi on the grid, that you could practically take to the bank.

However, although I did my own musings, I’d have to admit that there is a considerable amount of possibilities. Three new teams, 2 or possibly 3 teams might withdraw in their current guise and color, not to mention one of them risks the chance of being banned. There’s a lot more than Alonso holding up the market.

As much as I’ve come to like the Spaniard in the past year, I don’t agree with the fact that he’s the best driver out there, and as such he should not get as much credit as holding up next year’s musical chairs with a never ending hollow beat. Eventually the pack will sit and it would be far too diabolically amusing if he was the one left standing….

But you got to give it to Badoer, he did end up living his dream, even if it was a publicity nightmare…